Tesla-SpaceX merger bets rise above 50% for early 2027

Bets on a potential combination of Tesla and SpaceX reportedly climbed above 50% on October 16. Kalshi pricing for the March 2027 deadline reached 56% that morning, compared with 29% earlier in the week. Neither company has announced a merger.

The increase followed an October 14 analysis by Barclays analyst Dan Levy outlining a possible combination centered on artificial intelligence. His scenario would connect Tesla's autonomous vehicle and Optimus robot programs with AI operations associated with SpaceX. Those ideas remain an analyst's assessment, rather than a confirmed corporate plan.

The speculation reflects interest in the connections between Elon Musk's businesses and their technology projects. Prediction-market prices measure traders' expectations and can change quickly; they do not establish that the companies have agreed to a transaction.

Tesla has scheduled its third-quarter financial results for October 21 after trading ends, followed by a management question-and-answer webcast. Its announcement sets no timetable for a SpaceX transaction and makes no commitment to discuss one.