What the money says happens next

Live prediction-market odds on the AI race from Polymarket, refreshed every 30 minutes. ▲▼ is the move in the last 24 hours.

The race for #1

Who has the best model

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Google43%

Anthropic42%

OpenAI10%

Meta3%

$2.4M vol · ends Dec 31Polymarket ↗

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Google▼569%

Anthropic▲531%

OpenAI1%

Meta▼1<1%

$2.2M vol · ends Oct 31Polymarket ↗

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Google▼749%

Anthropic▲1240%

OpenAI3%

Meta3%

$267.2K vol · ends Dec 1Polymarket ↗

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560▼546%

1580▼116%

16006%

$236.4K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1540▼236%

↑ 1550▲121%

↑ 16004%

↑ 16503%

$223.1K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1575▼434%

160011%

$140.9K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Anthropic▲1765%

OpenAI13%

Meta9%

xAI7%

$210.2K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Google▼569%

Anthropic▲830%

Meta▼21%

OpenAI▼4<1%

$70.2K vol · ends Oct 31Polymarket ↗

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#18%

#3▼421%

$274.5K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Release odds

When's the next drop

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

October 15▼35%

October 2310%

October 31▼110%

November 3034%

$1.6M vol · ends Nov 1Polymarket ↗

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

October 12–October 18▼13%

October 19–October 253%

October 26–November 12%

No release by November 1▼191%

$284.4K vol · ends Nov 1Polymarket ↗

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

1480+▲131%

1490+30%

1495+▼127%

1500+▼127%

$268.2K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

40%+▲347%

45%+▲1137%

50%+▲538%

55%+▼228%

$99.3K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

October 16▼33%

October 23▼112%

October 31▲224%

December 31▲190%

$226.5K vol · ends Dec 31Polymarket ↗

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

October 12▲34%

October 14▲513%

October 17▼124%

October 24▼1344%

$305.8K vol · ends Dec 31Polymarket ↗

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

45%+▼291%

50%+90%

55%+▲126%

60%+5%

$109.4K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

The big ones

AGI and breakthroughs

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%chance▼1 today

$316.2K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

45%+▲458%

50%+▲151%

55%+▲832%

60%+▼415%

$155.4K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

55%+▼481%

60%+▲740%

65%+25%

70%+14%

$153.9K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

55%+▼183%

60%+▼536%

65%+▼121%

70%+7%

$132.9K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+▲197%

55%+▲163%

60%+▲838%

65%+12%

$118.2K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

60%+▼656%

65%+34%

70%+17%

75%+12%

$99.8K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

IPOs, valuations and deals

Money

OpenAI IPO by...?

December 31, 20264%

March 31, 2027▼322%

June 30, 202741%

$3M vol · ends Jul 1Polymarket ↗

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

$800B79%

$1T▼370%

$1.2T63%

$1.4T▲256%

$1.6M vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T3%

$1.25–$1.5T3%

$1.5–$1.75T7%

$1.75–$2.0T▼216%

$1.5M vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

400–600B1%

600B+▼195%

No IPO by December 31, 20273%

$521.8K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

<0.6T1%

0.9–1.2T<1%

1.2–1.5T3%

1.5–1.8T▼45%

$509.6K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B2%

500–750B2%

750B–1T3%

1T–1.25T4%

$457.9K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic96%

OpenAI4%

$422.3K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

November 2026▼159%

December 2026▲423%

February 20275%

January 2027▲14%

$357.6K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap

<20B7%

20B–30B▼14%

30B–40B▼14%

40B–50B3%

$149.6K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

More AI markets

Everything else

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

$2.00–$2.25T▼138%

$1.75–$2.00T▼736%

$2.25–$2.50T▲19%

$1.50–$1.75T▲16%

$136.5K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↓$600B2%

↓$700B3%

↓$800B3%

↑$1.5T93%

$5.4M vol · ends Jan 5Polymarket ↗

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

↓$500B3%

↓$600B▼13%

↓$700B▼14%

↓$750B6%

$1.3M vol · ends Jan 5Polymarket ↗

Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?

↓$125B2%

↓$130B2%

↓$135B3%

↓$140B4%

$143.1K vol · ends Jan 5Polymarket ↗

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic92%

OpenAI8%

$97.3K vol · ends Jan 5Polymarket ↗

Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?

↓$12.5B3%

↓$15B9%

↑$22.5B▲264%

↑$25B▲145%

$74.7K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Xiaomi▼139%

Alibaba▲136%

Moonshot▼210%

Z.ai▲17%

$194.5K vol · ends Oct 31Polymarket ↗

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

17%chance

$54.7K vol · ends Jan 1Polymarket ↗

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Alibaba▼435%

Moonshot▼711%

Baidu3%

Z.ai▲19%

$51.6K vol · ends Oct 31Polymarket ↗

Odds are market prices, not predictions by SI Rumors. Not financial advice.